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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Who will win the election at this point and by how much?
McCain wins by 10+ % points in a landslide00.00%
McCain wins by modest margin (3-9 % points)510.42%
McCain wins but race is close (51% McCain - 49% Obama)1735.42%
Obama wins but race is close (51% Obama - 49% McCain)510.42%
Obama wins by modest margin (3-9 % points)1633.33%
Obama wins by 10+ % points in a landslide510.42%
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
I am curious at this point in the race, for those viewers on this forum...

Where do you predict the race will end up?

What will be the final outcome?

By how much will your candidate win?

This is not about how you will vote, but rather what do you think based on what you've seen in the polls, from the news, talking with others, etc.

Thoughts?
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
I'm curious to know JustAnotherDog, in a different thread you said you still believe McCain will win. Which swing states will go his way? I see that O'Reilly has a new story out showing McCain leading in the electoral college states at the moment.

Does anyone believe his scenario of how McCain can be ahead?

I also see some posting here that the race has tightened up within 3% points in some places. Where are those places? Are they local polls that break out the races that are close?

Anyone?
 

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To tell you the truth I really don't know. It's so close it's like flipping a coin. It's hard to put much stock in the polls, since they have been proven to be wrong many times before. History has also shown that it's hard to predict who will show up to vote when the day comes. Is there a vote to start over with different candidates?
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
All good points.. and they should factor in to the outcome for sure..

How much has early mail in voting going to affect the outcome? I know a TON of my friends (almost 100%) have all already voted here.

Heck a bunch of them got together on the eve of the first morning to mail in ballots, and threw a camp out party out front of the Post Office....

That kind of enthusiasm from the youth will definitely be a factor in my estimation...
 

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I don't follow swing or any other states. If it's close it'll probably be settled by the courts.

I just believe people will swallow hard and not vote for Obama.

McCain wasn't my first choice, but when looking at the candidates we have to choose from. . . . . .

I've also talked to a number of people that said they will vote for a Republican for the first time in their lives. But I'm from ND so I'm uninformed, bitter and cling to my guns & religion.
 

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If someone thinks they know I will not believe anything else they say either. My reason I posted before. Like little kids who always want to be on the winners side even if they are not in the game. Most people have favorite football teams etc. They like the winners. If the polls fill us full of bs they hope that maybe one or one and a half percent will vote for Obama because they think he will win. In the end they have to retain their credibility so miraculously the polls close towards the end. I don't remember where Reagan was in the polls at this time, but every republican candidate since him has been behind. Bush was behind in polls days before both elections, then miraculously won. There is a chance of that again. I am sure it's closer than the media or the polls indicate, but I have no idea how close. No one does. Maybe each of the campaign people do.

I would not admit voting early. Please don't vote early, vote totally informed. There is still a few days to learn some things about each candidate that we do not know. How I would kick myself if I voted for McCain today and found out something bad about him the day before the election or something good I didn't know about Obama. People who don't know who they are going to vote for yet have not been paying attention, but voting early and throwing away your chance to change your mind is totally moronic. As much as I dislike Obama I will not vote until the last day. I doubt very much there is anything that could change my mind at this point, but I don't gamble foolishly on anything. I think Obama is encouraging vote early before you find out what a jerk I really am. I hope the cool-aid is tasty.

Longshot, I agree, I wish we could start over. There are better people on both sides. The democrats and the republicans picked the poorest they have to offer. One liberal and one Marxist what a choice.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
It looks like several people believe McCain will still win by a modest margin.

Curious for those who voted this way. Which states will McCain win that are the larger swing states in play?

It is one thing to believe that you think the American people will vote for McCain, I'm wondering where you think those electoral votes will come from?

For all those trying to skew the poll, please justify the answer with understandable logic.

Thanks
 

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well, I voted McCain wins close, but figure it could go either way.

As far as the polls, historically speaking the polls have underestimated the repulican candidate by almost 8 points in the last 5 elections and Obamas numbers are starting to fall. May be too little to late for McCain, or may not be, but I believe the public is beginning to see the inexperience, waffling and questionable character of Obama.
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Thanks SDBearfan

appreciate the reply...

anyone else?
 

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I truthfully can not pic a winner. Who ever wins it will be a squeak by. If Obama wins expect a lot of complaining for four years after the riots. Expect riots also if McCain wins. We will hear the same old story about a stolen election even after ACORN stuffs some ballot boxes. I don't think it will be pretty either way. We have become to polarized.
 

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I voted obama will win by a close margin. But again it could go either way.

one thing is I don't get in the poll hype. Because polls can be skewed. Just like surveys and what not to show advantage. Then the polls that most people see are from certain media sources with skew info one way or another to fit its political needs.

Reason why I say obama now is because too many people I have talked with are voting him. Again I ask why and all I get is they want change. Which to me is a bad reason. Change....but why and how will his change help....not just change.

But also a reason why I say it could go either way is because lots of obama's supporters (college age and what not) sometimes don't show up to the polls.

What I mean by that is they have a loud bark....but sometimes they just don't bite. They speak of all this change and what not...but then it comes down to doing something......they waffer.

Only time will tell......well next weds for sure.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Chuck Smith said:
But also a reason why I say it could go either way is because lots of obama's supporters (college age and what not) sometimes don't show up to the polls.

What I mean by that is they have a loud bark....but sometimes they just don't bite. They speak of all this change and what not...but then it comes down to doing something......they waffer.

Only time will tell......well next weds for sure.
Curious Chuck..

How much news coverage do you get in regards to how many folks have already voted early? Do you realize how much early voting has already happened by state?

A few stats... I'll see if I can dig up more later...

Reporting from Washington -- Record numbers of voters across the nation are casting ballots before election day, including high proportions of Democrats and African Americans in some of the battleground states in what appears to be a promising sign for Barack Obama.

In the 32 states that allow people to vote before Nov. 4 without a special excuse, election officials report heavy turnout as the presidential campaign reaches its frenzied last days. That's not surprising in a campaign that has received round-the-clock attention. But it also reflects the intensive efforts of campaigns competing to bank votes before election day.

In North Carolina, which hasn't gone for a Democrat for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost a million people have voted, and Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2 to 1.

"We're going to bust every record we've ever had," Gary Bartlett, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said of the state's early-voting participation.

A surprise is the makeup of the early voters, election experts said. In past campaign seasons, Republicans have used early voting to their advantage, mobilizing a slice of the electorate that typically skews their way.

Yet a look at voters in a handful of crucial states suggests that Obama is turning out his base in numbers that surpass those of Republican John McCain.

"Historically, we've seen that early voters are older, they tend to be white, have higher incomes and are better educated," said Paul Gronke, director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Portland, Ore.

"And that group of people tends to trend Republican. Now we have a mirror image in this campaign."

Lloyd and Sandra Clemons, a retired couple who voted early Friday near Pittsboro in Chatham County, N.C., said they chose Obama, whom they described as an inspirational figure.

Sandra Clemons, a former municipal worker, said she was initially a Hillary Rodham Clinton supporter because she figured Obama's candidacy would fade.

"I was afraid he wouldn't make it and I'd be disappointed. Now I think it's a major historic event -- just unbelievable, and very exciting," she said.

Early voting continues in many states, so the numbers can change. But Obama seems well-positioned in several Republican-leaning states that have the potential to broaden his path to the magic number of 270 electoral votes.

In North Carolina, early voting shows Obama's party in the lead. Of the 930,516 people who have voted early, 56% are Democrats and 27% Republican. Blacks account for 21% of North Carolina's registered voters but make up 28% of those who've voted early.

In Georgia, which hasn't chosen a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992, African Americans are voting in disproportionately high numbers. Of the 967,210 people who've voted early, 35% are black, state data show. By contrast, blacks constituted only about 25% of the total that voted for president in 2004.

Iowa voted for President Bush in 2004, but the Obama campaign hopes to win the state. Early voting figures bode well for that. About 51% of the 277,909 Iowans who've voted early are Democrats, compared with 28% Republicans .

Stewart Iverson, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, said he wasn't unnerved by the trend. He views the state as a tossup, and says McCain has a "decent shot at winning."

"We've been through this in several election cycles," he said. "On election day, what we've found is normally a greater percentage of registered Republicans vote than Democrats."

Florida, a huge prize with 27 electoral votes, offers a mixed picture. More than 1.5 million Floridians have already cast ballots. Democrats hold a tiny advantage: 42.7% to 42.6%. Republicans now hold a 16-point edge in absentee balloting, whereas Democrats have a 23-point lead among people showing up at the voting booths.

A Florida GOP official voiced worry that the gap would grow.


"We know Florida is a battleground state, and we'll just have to work that much harder to deliver these 27 electoral votes to John McCain -- and that will take every ounce of the grass-roots machine we've built up," said the official, who asked for anonymity to speak more freely.

Early voting is becoming more commonplace as states eager to relieve election day congestion offer new options to cast ballots in advance. Experts estimate that upward of 30% of all votes may be cast early this year. In comparison, 14% of the electorate voted early in the 2000 election.

A Gallup poll released Friday found that, of the people who've voted early nationwide, roughly half have supported McCain, the other half Obama.

Republicans may have been hoping for more of an edge.

In Bush's two successful campaigns for president, he won the early vote both times, according to experts on preelection-day voting. It's not clear the pattern will hold.

Examining the "demographic profile of early voters in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, we're seeing a larger percentage of Democrats than one might expect," said George Mason University's Michael McDonald, who specializes in voter turnout. "We're seeing a larger share of African Americans than we would expect. These points taken as a whole do tell us indeed that the people who've voted so far are more likely to be Obama supporters than McCain supporters."
 

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Ryan.....how many registered voters per state? or Eligible registered voters?

Yes lots have voted early. But will that mean even more will vote come Tues? That is the question.

Back when I was in college lots of kids talked about politics....but when it came time to vote....many did not. They talked the game but did not fallow through.

That is just my experience. I am sure others have had different.
 

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Ryan....

Here is an example on why it is not over until it is over....

take NC. They have roughly 4 million voters. right now with your stats the dems have roughly 520,000 votes and Rep 251,000.

Now take the rest of the voters.....3 mil. Now move the percentages to 40% dems on the rest (1.2 mil more votes) and 50% rep of the rest. (1.5 mil votes)

That makes it so the Rep win the state by roughly 30,000 votes.

So early voting and other polls don't me anything to me.
It is not over until weds morning. Well unless another flordia relapse again.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
Check this out Chuck...

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/31/oh-the-waiting/

The Lines today to Vote in Atlanta is currently being reported to be EIGHT TO TEN HOURS long, on the last day of early voting...

Click above for incredible footage of the 8-10 hour-long line.

Most in line are African American, young, and energized... you think they are Dem or Republicans?

Interesting stuff..

Bob you are in Georgia... did you see a report of this?

Ryan
 

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No matter if they are Dem or Rep. I am glad they are out. If it is for the right reasons.

I think people know what I mean. Voting because they believe in a platform and good for the nation. (which ever way it is)

Not because it is a race issue.
 

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I think Obama could run on a Fidel Castro platform and most african americans would vote for him. Most are voting for him for one reason. I was watching a news show and they were interviewing people and most of them (african american and white) Had no idea what his platform was but they were going to vote for him. That's just a little scary, no really scary.
 

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R y a n said:
Check this out Chuck...

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/31/oh-the-waiting/

The Lines today to Vote in Atlanta is currently being reported to be EIGHT TO TEN HOURS long, on the last day of early voting...

Click above for incredible footage of the 8-10 hour-long line.

Most in line are African American, young, and energized... you think they are Dem or Republicans?

Interesting stuff..

Bob you are in Georgia... did you see a report of this?

Ryan
That's a shame. We have worked so hard in this nation to reduce racism too. We perhaps made the mistake when we concentrated on white people. I guess we forgot African Americans again. How shallow to vote for a person or against a person based on skin color. Sad.
 
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